Wing & a Prayer Productions

Well, it’s that time of year again: The 2009 Six Nations begins this weekend.  So here’s my thoughts, for what they’re worth (probably not terribly original but there we are).

Wales go in as the bookmaker’s favourites to retain the title, for the time in probably decades.  Being favourite is a dangerous tag to have but, if Wales are serious (and I think they are) in their stated aim of being the world’s best then they need to get used to that label.  And, to be fair, that label has been fairly earned.  Their performances have only improved since winning the Grand Slam last year, pushing the All Blacks and South Africa hard and beating Australia, better results than any of the other Northern Hemisphere sides (result in their current world ranking of 5th; again, better than the rest of the NH).

But it’s not enough for Wales to be the best in the NH any more, not if they want to be the best, not if they want to win the World Cup.  Can they win the Gram Slam again?  Certainly (though there’s no such thing as a dead cert).  Do they need to win it?  Not necessarily.  The worst result Wales could accept in the autumn (if they’re to remain on track to be the world’s best) was what they got (as I said in this blog at the time): beating one of the Tri-nations and pushing the others hard.  I think the worst result they can take from the Six Nations is to come second (you can’t win everything all the time).  But any worse than that and it will be a serious step backwards for this Welsh side. 

If Wales do lose any matches I suspect their line out will be to blame.  At the moment it’s the one real Achilles Heel in their game.  The injury to Jonathon Thomas is a blow in this department but, frankly, they need to sort this out and not rely on one key man to get things right.

Having said this, Wales are looking good and I certainly hope to see them repeat their feat of a hundred years ago and achieve back to back Grand Slams. 

As for the rest: France remain as unpredictable as ever.  They could win it or they could crash and burn and it’s pointless to guess though, to judge on the form of French clubs in Europe the latter looks more likely.  Ireland I suspect will do well, both on the strength of their autumn and of Irish clubs at the minute.  Italy will fancy their chances against anyone looking weak; which would be England at the minute. 

While I still can’t quite believe England can lose at Twickenham to Italy they are looking ropier than I’ve ever seen them look.  While I don't want to revel in another team's misfortunes, it confirms what most people have been thinking, that England's runner up spot in the last World Cup and Six Nations was very flukey.  It’scertainly  a strange experience hearing so many of the phrases that were used of Wales a decade ago now being applied to England.  Maybe they will surprise but, historically, England are not a side who do surprises.

A side which I do hope for some surprises from are Scotland.  Apart from Wales they’re the side I really want to see this season.  Both attitude and performance seem to have shot forward in the last year.  If an upset happens to any team it’ll be at the hands of Scotland.

I just hope it’s not this weekend.